BYU Studies article that analyzes Church growth using Pew data.

Date
2019
Type
Academic / Technical Report
Source
Stephen Cranney
LDS
Hearsay
Direct
Secondary
Reference

Stephen Cranney, "Who Is Leaving the Church? Demographic Predictors of Ex-Latter-day Saint Status in the Pew Religious Landscape Survey," BYU Studies Qaurterly 58, no. 1 (2019): 99-108.

Scribe/Publisher
BYU Studies
People
Stephen Cranney
Audience
Latter-day Saints, Reading Public
PDF
Transcription

How many people are leaving the Church? According to these weighted estimates, 191 people with a Latter-day Saint background left, compared to 379 who did not, meaning that about one-third of those with a Latter-day Saint background have left the Church. Another relevant statistic is how this number compares to those who are joining the Church, since one number being higher than the other suggests a net shrinking or growing of the Church (not taking into account the “natural growth” from childbirths) over the long run. Here, about 172 members of the Church are converts (versus the 379 who were born in the Church), representing about 31 percent of the Church, which is not significantly different statistically from the number of people leaving. In other words, as of 2014 the Church appears to be treading water in terms of replacing those who leave with converts, meaning that any real growth comes from the natural growth of members of the Church having children.

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